Forthcoming in Data Collection and Research Issues for Studies of Welfare Populations, eds. C. Citro, R. Moffitt, and S. Ver Ploeg. Washington: National Academy Press. Experienced-Based Measures of Heterogeneity in the Welfare Caseload

It has long been understood by welfare researchers that the welfare caseload is quite diverse. Heterogeneity has assumed particular importance in the welfare reform environment of the 1990s because welfare recipients with different characteristics are likely to have different capacities for responding to work-oriented reform. This paper constructs measures of heterogeneity based on the recipient's own welfare experience (“experienced-based” measures of heterogeneity) using the 1979 National Longitudinal Study of Youth. Women in the U.S. population are characterized by the amount of time they have spent on welfare, the number of welfare spells they have experienced, and the average length of their welfare spells. They are further classified as long-termers, short-termers, or cyclers. The analysis of the characteristics of these groups reveals that short-termers have the strongest labor market capabilities but, surprisingly, that cyclers have the weakest, with long-termers in between. In addition, the analysis shows that the most consistent indicator of labor market capability is the total amount of time a recipient has been on welfare, not the degree of turnover or lengths of spells she experiences. When turnover is used as an indicator, it appears that welfare cyclers may not be a better-off group than long-term recipients. It is concluded that the nature of welfare cyclers and reasons that cycling occur are not well understood.